George Russell says he does not expect Mercedes to be competing for victory at the start of the Formula 1 season in Bahrain next week.
Russell said he believed Red Bull were the team to beat on the evidence of the first two days of pre-season testing.
He said: "We definitely believe eventually we will have a car capable of getting in that fight.
"Whether we're going to have that next weekend in Bahrain, I think may be a bit of a stretch."
Russell's comments came as Red Bull's world champion Max Verstappen continued to look impressive for the second consecutive day at the Sakhir circuit.
"They look very strong, very stable," Russell said. "The car is looking really strong and obviously Max is performing really well.
"So I think realistically, it will be a stretch for next week. But there's no reason why eventually we can't get there at some point this year, and we've always seen the strength of Mercedes and their development rates. So yeah, definitely. My belief is that."
Pre-season testing times are notoriously unreliable indicators of form, as fuel loads, engine modes and other variables can have a significant effect on lap times.
Verstappen ended the day second fastest behind Alfa Romeo's Zhou Guanyu, who went out on the softest tyres late in the day for what appeared to be a simulation of qualifying.
Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso was third quickest, ahead of Alpha Tauri's Nyck de Vries, another to do a qualifying-style run on the softest tyres.
Russell was 13th fastest in the Mercedes, with team-mate Lewis Hamilton 15th.
Mercedes head into 2023 off the back of a difficult year that ended their run of eight consecutive constructors' titles since 2014.
They won only one race - with Russell at the penultimate grand prix of the season in Brazil - and finished third behind Red Bull and Ferrari.
But Russell said the team were in a better place than they were at the same point last year, when they discovered in pre-season testing that their car was badly afflicted with aerodynamic bouncing - or porpoising - that compromised their season.
"The entry phase [to the corner] has been improved," Russell said. "It's no secret when you're watching the onboards and videos that we are struggling a little bit with the balance, struggling a lot in the mid corner.
"But I think it's a balance that is probably easier to solve than we had last year. So even though it's still a limitation, I think it's a good problem to have."
Team principal Toto Wolff said that the "porpoising has gone, essentially", adding: "The car is out of balance this morning and we just didn't find the set-up for these hot conditions."
Wolff said that rivals Red Bull and Ferrari were "fast - no surprise there" but he added there was "a feeling of excitement because we got it wrong last year".
McLaren are also playing down their hopes for the start of the season.
McLaren Racing chief executive officer Zak Brown said: "We know we set some some goals for development, which we didn't hit. We felt it was better to be honest about that.
"We, like everyone, have a lot of development coming. So we are encouraged by what we see around the corner, but I think we will be going into the first race off of our projected targets and hard to really know where that means we'll we'll be on the grid."
Fastest times, day two, pre-season testing, Bahrain
1 Zhou Guanyu (Chi) Alfa Romeo one minute 31.610 seconds *
2 Max Verstappen (Ned) Red Bull one minute 31.650 seconds
3 Fernando Alonso (Spa) Aston Martin 1:32.205
4 Nyck De Vries (Ned) Alpha Tauri 1:32.214 *
5 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) Haas 1:32.466 *
6 Carlos Sainz (Spa) Ferrari 1:32.486
7 Logan Sargeant (USA) Williams 1:32.549
8 Charles Leclerc (Mon) Ferrari 1:32.725
9 Oscar Piastri (Aus) McLaren 1:33.175
10 Pierre Gasly (Fra) Alpine 1:33.186
11 Kevin Magnussen (Den) Haas 1:33.442
12 Esteban Ocon (Fra) Alpine 1:33.490
13 George Russell (GB) Mercedes 1:33.654
14 Sergio Perez (Mex) Red Bull 1:33.751
15 Lewis Hamilton (GB) Mercedes 1:33.954
16 Lando Norris (GB) McLaren 1:35.522
17 Yuki Tsunoda (Jpn) Alpha Tauri 1:35.708
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